Effectiveness of mRNA and inactivated COVID-19 vaccines: A test-negative study in an infection-naïve Hong Kong population.

OBJECTIVE: Assess real-world effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19. METHODS: A test-negative study was conducted in January-May 2022 during an Omicron BA.2 wave in Hong Kong. COVID-19 was identified by RT-PCR. 1-1 case-control matching was based on propensity score with vaccine effectiveness adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Altogether, 1781 cases and 1737 controls aged 3-105 years were analysed. The mean lag time from the last dose of vaccination to testing for SARS-CoV-2 was 133.9 (SD: 84.4) days. Two doses of either vaccine within 180 days offered a low effectiveness against COVID-19 of all severity combined (VEadj [95% CI] for BNT162b2: 27.0% [4.2-44.5], CoronaVac: 22.9% [1.3-39.7]), and further decreased after 180 days. Two doses of CoronaVac were poorly protective 39.5% [4.9-62.5] against severe diseases for age ≥ 60 years, but the effectiveness increased substantially after the third dose (79.1% [25.7-96.7]). Two doses of BNT162b2 protected age ≥ 60 years against severe diseases (79.3% [47.2, 93.9]); however, the uptake was not high enough to assess three doses. CONCLUSIONS: The current real-world analysis indicates a high vaccine effectiveness of three doses of inactivated virus (CoronaVac) vaccines against Omicron variant, whereas the effectiveness of two doses is suboptimal.

Case series of HIV SARS-CoV-2 co-infection in Chinese adults.

Objectives: Little is known whether differences exist in virus shedding, immune and inflammatory response related to SARS-CoV-2 in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH). We assessed viral RNA and cytokine profiles of HIV and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection in Hong Kong. Methods: PLWH hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hong Kong were included, compared with age-matched and disease severity-matched SARS-CoV-2 infected controls (ratio of 1:5) from February 1st 2020 to July 31st 2020. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by public health laboratory and virus concentration was quantified by an in-house real-time reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. A panel of cytokines and chemokines were performed. Results: HIV patients had a similar respiratory shedding profile compared to controls. Duration of faecal shedding of patient A, B, C and D were at least 9, 10, 33, and 11 days, respectively. HIV patients had lower plasma levels of IL-10 and NT-pro-BNP. All 4 PLWH cases showed seroconversion to SARS-CoV-2 with anti-SARS-CoV-2 S antibodies detected in serum collected between day 18 and 30 after symptom onset. Conclusions: PLWH behaves similarly with HIV-negative controls in respiratory viral load, but with decrease in IL-10 and NT-proBNP. PLWH may have a lower risk of immunostimulatory effect due to lower IL-10.

Cross-Clade Memory Immunity in Adults Following SARS-CoV-1 Infection in 2003.

Importance: Knowledge of the longevity and breath of immune response to coronavirus infection is crucial for the development of next-generation vaccines to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Objectives: To determine the profile of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among persons infected with the closely related virus, SARS-CoV-1, in 2003 (SARS03 survivors) and to characterize their antibody response soon after the first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccines. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study examined SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among SARS03 survivors compared with sex- and age-matched infection-naive controls. Participants received the COVID-19 vaccines between March 1 and September 30, 2021. Interventions: One of the 2 COVID-19 vaccines (inactivated [CoronaVac] or messenger RNA [BNT162b2]) available in Hong Kong. Two doses were given according to the recommended schedule. The vaccine type administered was known to both participants and observers. Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured prevaccination, 7 days after the first dose, and 14 days after the second dose. Results: Eighteen SARS03 adult survivors (15 women and 3 men; median age, 46.5 [IQR, 40.0-54.3] years) underwent prevaccination serologic examination. The vast majority retained a detectable level of antibodies that cross-reacted with SARS-CoV-2 (16 of 18 [88.9%] with nucleocapsid protein antibodies and 17 of 18 [94.4%] with receptor-binding domain of spike protein antibodies); a substantial proportion (11 of 18 [61.1%]) had detectable cross-neutralizing antibodies. Twelve SARS03 adult survivors (10 women and 2 men) underwent postvaccination serologic examination. At 7 days after the first dose of vaccine, SARS03 survivors mounted significantly higher levels of neutralizing antibodies compared with controls (median inhibition: 89.5% [IQR, 77.1%-93.7%] vs 13.9% [IQR, 11.8%-16.1%] for BNT162b2; 64.9% [IQR, 60.8%-69.5%] vs 13.4% [IQR, 9.5%-16.8%] for CoronaVac; P < .001 for both). At 14 days after the second dose, SARS03 survivors generated a broader antibody response with significantly higher levels of neutralizing antibodies against variants of concern compared with controls (eg, median inhibition against Omicron variant, 52.1% [IQR, 35.8%-66.0%] vs 14.7% [IQR, 2.5%-20.7%]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this prospective cohort study suggest that infection with SARS-CoV-1 was associated with detectable levels of antibodies that cross-react and cross-neutralize SARS-CoV-2, which belongs to a distinct clade under the same subgenus Sarbecovirus. These findings support the development of broadly protective vaccines to cover sarbecoviruses that caused 2 devastating zoonotic outbreaks in humans over the last 2 decades.

Limited Impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the Human Naso-Oropharyngeal Microbiota in Hospitalized Patients.

Numerous studies have reported dysbiosis in the naso- and/or oro-pharyngeal microbiota of COVID-19 patients compared with healthy individuals; however, only a few small-scale studies have also included a disease control group. In this study, we characterized and compared the bacterial communities of pooled nasopharyngeal and throat swabs from hospitalized COVID-19 patients (n = 76), hospitalized non-COVID-19 patients with respiratory symptoms or related illnesses (n = 69), and local community controls (n = 76) using 16S rRNA gene V3-V4 amplicon sequencing. None of the subjects received antimicrobial therapy within 2 weeks prior to sample collection. Both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 hospitalized patients differed in the composition, alpha and beta diversity, and metabolic potential of the naso-oropharyngeal microbiota compared with local controls. However, the microbial communities in the two hospitalized patient groups did not differ significantly from each other. Differential abundance analysis revealed the enrichment of nine bacterial genera in the COVID-19 patients compared with local controls; however, six of them were also enriched in the non-COVID-19 patients. Bacterial genera uniquely enriched in the COVID-19 patients included Alloprevotella and Solobacterium. In contrast, Mogibacterium and Lactococcus were dramatically decreased in COVID-19 patients only. Association analysis revealed that Alloprevotella in COVID-19 patients was positively correlated with the level of the inflammation biomarker C-reactive protein. Our findings reveal a limited impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the naso-oropharyngeal microbiota in hospitalized patients and suggest that Alloprevotella and Solobacterium are more specific biomarkers for COVID-19 detection. IMPORTANCE Our results showed that while both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 hospitalized patients differed in the composition, alpha and beta diversity, and metabolic potential of the naso-oropharyngeal microbiota compared with local controls, the microbial communities in the two hospitalized patient groups did not differ significantly from each other, indicating a limited impact of SARS-CoV-2 on the naso-oropharyngeal microbiota in hospitalized patients. Besides, we identified Alloprevotella and Solobacterium as bacterial genera uniquely enriched in COVID-19 patients, which may serve as more specific biomarkers for COVID-19 detection.

Rapid evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants by analysis of genetic distance.

Timely evaluation of the protective effects of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is urgently needed to inform pandemic control planning. Based on 78 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness (VE) data from 49 studies and 1,984,241 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected from 31 regions, we analyzed the relationship between genetic distance (GD) of circulating viruses against the vaccine strain and VE against symptomatic infection. We found that the GD of the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is highly predictive of vaccine protection and accounted for 86.3% (P = 0.038) of the VE change in a vaccine platform-based mixed-effects model and 87.9% (P = 0.006) in a manufacturer-based model. We applied the VE-GD model to predict protection mediated by existing vaccines against new genetic variants and validated the results by published real-world and clinical trial data, finding high concordance of predicted VE with observed VE. We estimated the VE against the Delta variant to be 82.8% (95% prediction interval: 68.7-96.0) using the mRNA vaccine platform, closely matching the reported VE of 83.0% from an observational study. Among the four sublineages of Omicron, the predicted VE varied between 11.9% and 33.3%, with the highest VE predicted against BA.1 and the lowest against BA.2, using the mRNA vaccine platform. The VE-GD framework enables predictions of vaccine protection in real time and offers a rapid evaluation method against novel variants that may inform vaccine deployment and public health responses.

Profiling of SARS-CoV-2 Subgenomic RNAs in Clinical Specimens.

SARS-CoV-2 transcribes a set of subgenomic RNAs (sgRNAs) essential for the translation of structural and accessory proteins to sustain its life cycle. We applied RNA-seq on 375 respiratory samples from individual COVID-19 patients and revealed that the majority of the sgRNAs were canonical transcripts with N being the most abundant (36.2%), followed by S (11.6%), open reading frame 7a (ORF7a; 10.3%), M (8.4%), ORF3a (7.9%), ORF8 (6.0%), E (4.6%), ORF6 (2.5%), and ORF7b (0.3%); but ORF10 was not detected. The profile of most sgRNAs, except N, showed an independent association with viral load, time of specimen collection after onset, age of the patient, and S-614D/G variant with ORF7b and then ORF6 being the most sensitive to changes in these characteristics. Monitoring of 124 serial samples from 10 patients using sgRNA-specific real-time RT-PCR revealed a potential of adopting sgRNA as a marker of viral activity. Respiratory samples harboring a full set of canonical sgRNAs were mainly collected early within 1 to 2 weeks from onset, and most of the stool samples (90%) were negative for sgRNAs despite testing positive by diagnostic PCR targeting genomic RNA. ORF7b was the first to become undetectable and again being the most sensitive surrogate marker for a full set of canonical sgRNAs in clinical samples. The potential of using sgRNA to monitor viral activity and progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and hence as one of the objective indicators to triage patients for isolation and treatment should be considered. IMPORTANCE Attempts to use subgenomic RNAs (sgRNAs) of SARS-CoV-2 to identify active infection of COVID-19 have produced diverse results. In this work, we applied next-generation sequencing and RT-PCR to profile the full spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 sgRNAs in a large cohort of respiratory and stool samples collected throughout infection. Numerous known and novel discontinuous transcription events potentially encoding full-length, deleted and frameshift proteins were observed. In particular, the expression profile of canonical sgRNAs was associated with genomic RNA level and clinical characteristics. Our study found sgRNAs as potential biomarkers for monitoring infectivity and progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection, which provides an alternative target for the management and treatment of COVID-19 patients.

Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health threat. This study aims to evaluate the effect of virus mutation activities and policy interventions on COVID-19 transmissibility in Hong Kong. METHODS: In this study, we integrated the genetic activities of multiple proteins, and quantified the effect of government interventions and mutation activities against the time-varying effective reproduction number Rt. FINDINGS: We found a significantly positive relationship between Rt and mutation activities and a significantly negative relationship between Rt and government interventions. The results showed that the mutations that contributed most to the increase of Rt were from the spike, nucleocapsid and ORF1b genes. Policy of prohibition on group gathering was estimated to have the largest impact on mitigating virus transmissibility. The model explained 63.2% of the Rt variability with the R2. CONCLUSION: Our study provided a convenient framework to estimate the effect of genetic contribution and government interventions on pathogen transmissibility. We showed that the S, N and ORF1b protein had significant contribution to the increase of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong, while restrictions of public gathering and suspension of face-to-face class are the most effective government interventions strategies.

Temporal Patterns in the Evolutionary Genetic Distance of SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

During coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the genetic mutations of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) occurred frequently. Some mutations in the spike protein are considered to promote transmissibility of the virus, while the mutation patterns in other proteins are less studied and may also be important in understanding the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2. We used the sequencing data of SARS-CoV-2 strains in California to investigate the time-varying patterns of the evolutionary genetic distance. The accumulative genetic distances were quantified across different time periods and in different viral proteins. The increasing trends of genetic distance were observed in spike protein (S protein), the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) region and nonstructural protein 3 (nsp3) of open reading frame 1 (ORF1), and nucleocapsid protein (N protein). The genetic distances in ORF3a, ORF8, and nsp2 of ORF1 started to diverge from their original variants after September 2020. By contrast, mutations in other proteins appeared transiently, and no evident increasing trend was observed in the genetic distance to the original variants. This study presents distinct patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 mutations across multiple proteins from the aspect of genetic distance. Future investigation shall be conducted to study the effects of accumulative mutations on epidemics characteristics.

Longitudinal Cytokine Profile in Patients With Mild to Critical COVID-19.

The cytokine release syndrome has been proposed as the driver of inflammation in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, studies on longitudinal cytokine profiles in patients across the whole severity spectrum of COVID-19 are lacking. In this prospective observational study on adult COVID-19 patients admitted to two Hong Kong public hospitals, cytokine profiling was performed on blood samples taken during early phase (within 7 days of symptom onset) and late phase (8 to 12 days of symptom onset). The primary objective was to evaluate the difference in early and late cytokine profiles among patient groups with different disease severity. The secondary objective was to assess the associations between cytokines and clinical endpoints in critically ill patients. A total of 40 adult patients (mild = 8, moderate = 15, severe/critical = 17) hospitalized with COVID-19 were included in this study. We found 22 cytokines which were correlated with disease severity, as proinflammatory Th1-related cytokines (interleukin (IL)-18, interferon-induced protein-10 (IP-10), monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG), and IL-10) and ARDS-associated cytokines (IL-6, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), and IL-8) were progressively elevated with increasing disease severity. Furthermore, 11 cytokines were consistently different in both early and late phases, including seven (growth-regulated oncogene-alpha (GRO-α), IL-1RA, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IP-10, and MIG) that increased and four (FGF-2, IL-5, macrophage-derived chemokine (MDC), and MIP-1α) that decreased from mild to severe/critical patients. IL-8, followed by IP-10 and MDC were the best performing early biomarkers to predict disease severity. Among critically ill patients, MCP-1 predicted the duration of mechanical ventilation, highest norepinephrine dose administered, and length of intensive care stay.

Seroprevalence of Unidentified SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Hong Kong During 3 Pandemic Waves.

Importance: Seroprevalence studies inform the extent of infection and assist evaluation of mitigation strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of unidentified SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population of Hong Kong. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective cross-sectional study was conducted in Hong Kong after each major wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (April 21 to July 7, 2020; September 29 to November 23, 2020; and January 15 to April 18, 2021). Adults (age ≥18 years) who had not been diagnosed with COVID-19 were recruited during each period, and their sociodemographic information, symptoms, travel, contact, quarantine, and COVID-19 testing history were collected. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies were detected by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on spike (S1/S2) protein, followed by confirmation with a commercial electrochemiluminescence immunoassay based on the receptor binding domain of spike protein. Results: The study enrolled 4198 participants (2539 [60%] female; median age, 50 years [IQR, 25 years]), including 903 (22%), 1046 (25%), and 2249 (53%) during April 21 to July 7, 2020; during September 29 to November 23, 2020; and during January 15 to April 18, 2021, respectively. The numbers of participants aged 18 to 39 years, 40 to 59 years, and 60 years or older were 1328 (32%), 1645 (39%), and 1225 (29%), respectively. Among the participants, 2444 (58%) stayed in Hong Kong since November 2019 and 2094 (50%) had negative SARS-CoV-2 RNA test results. Only 170 (4%) reported ever having contact with individuals with confirmed cases, and 5% had been isolated or quarantined. Most (2803 [67%]) did not recall any illnesses, whereas 737 (18%), 212 (5%), and 385 (9%) had experienced respiratory symptoms, gastrointestinal symptoms, or both, respectively, before testing. Six participants were confirmed to be positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG; the adjusted prevalence of unidentified infection was 0.15% (95% CI, 0.06%-0.32%). Extrapolating these findings to the whole population, there were fewer than 1.9 unidentified infections for every recorded confirmed case. The overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Hong Kong before the roll out of vaccination was less than 0.45%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of participants from the general public in Hong Kong, the prevalence of unidentified SARS-CoV-2 infection was low after 3 major waves of the pandemic, suggesting the success of the pandemic mitigation by stringent isolation and quarantine policies even without complete city lockdown. More than 99.5% of the general population of Hong Kong remain naive to SARS-CoV-2, highlighting the urgent need to achieve high vaccine coverage.

Temporal-Geographical Dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Glycoprotein Variant Lineages and Their Functional Prediction Using in Silico Approach.

SARS-CoV-2 is a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus with emerging mutations, especially on the Spike glycoprotein (S protein). To delineate the genomic diversity in association with geographic dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variant lineages, we collected 939,591 complete S protein sequences deposited in the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) from December 2019 to April 2021. An exponential emergence of S protein variants was observed since October 2020 when the four major variants of concern (VOCs), namely, alpha (α) (B.1.1.7), beta (ß) (B.1.351), gamma (γ) (P.1), and delta (δ) (B.1.617), started to circulate in various communities. We found that residues 452, 477, 484, and 501, the 4 key amino acids located in the hACE2 binding domain of S protein, were under positive selection. Through in silico protein structure prediction and immunoinformatics tools, we discovered D614G is the key determinant to S protein conformational change, while variations of N439K, T478I, E484K, and N501Y in S1-RBD also had an impact on S protein binding affinity to hACE2 and antigenicity. Finally, we predicted that the yet-to-be-identified hypothetical N439S, T478S, and N501K mutations could confer an even greater binding affinity to hACE2 and evade host immune surveillance more efficiently than the respective native variants. This study documented the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 S protein over the first 16 months of the pandemic and identified several key amino acid changes that are predicted to confer a substantial impact on transmission and immunological recognition. These findings convey crucial information to sequence-based surveillance programs and the design of next-generation vaccines. IMPORTANCE Our study showed the global distribution of SARS-CoV-2 S protein variants from January 2020 to the end of April 2021. We highlighted the key amino acids of S protein subjected to positive selection. Using computer-aided approaches, we predicted the impact of the amino acid variations in S protein on viral infectivity and antigenicity. We also predicted the potential amino acid mutations that could arise in favor of SARS-CoV-2 virulence. These findings are vital for vaccine designing and anti-SARS-CoV-2 drug discovery in an effort to combat COVID-19.

Real-time quantification of the transmission advantage associated with a single mutation in pathogen genomes: a case study on the D614G substitution of SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to global health, and the emerging mutation in SARS-CoV-2 genomes, e.g., the D614G substitution, is one of the major challenges of disease control. Characterizing the role of the mutation activities is of importance to understand how the evolution of pathogen shapes the epidemiological outcomes at population scale. METHODS: We developed a statistical framework to reconstruct variant-specific reproduction numbers and estimate transmission advantage associated with the mutation activities marked by single substitution empirically. Using likelihood-based approach, the model is exemplified with the COVID-19 surveillance data from January 1 to June 30, 2020 in California, USA. We explore the potential of this framework to generate early warning signals for detecting transmission advantage on a real-time basis. RESULTS: The modelling framework in this study links together the mutation activity at molecular scale and COVID-19 transmissibility at population scale. We find a significant transmission advantage of COVID-19 associated with the D614G substitution, which increases the infectivity by 54% (95%CI: 36, 72). For the early alarming potentials, the analytical framework is demonstrated to detect this transmission advantage, before the mutation reaches dominance, on a real-time basis. CONCLUSIONS: We reported an evidence of transmission advantage associated with D614G substitution, and highlighted the real-time estimating potentials of modelling framework.

A Bayesian method for synthesizing multiple diagnostic outcomes of COVID-19 tests.

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide and threatened human life. Diagnosis is crucial to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections and save lives. Diagnostic tests for COVID-19 have varying sensitivity and specificity, and the false-negative results would have substantial consequences to patient treatment and pandemic control. To detect all suspected infections, multiple testing is widely used. However, it may be challenging to build an assertion when the testing results are inconsistent. Considering the situation where there is more than one diagnostic outcome for each subject, we proposed a Bayesian probabilistic framework based on the sensitivity and specificity of each diagnostic method to synthesize a posterior probability of being infected by SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrated that the synthesized posterior outcome outperformed each individual testing outcome. A user-friendly web application was developed to implement our analytic framework with free access via http://www2.ccrb.cuhk.edu.hk/statgene/COVID_19/. The web application enables the real-time display of the integrated outcome incorporating two or more tests and calculated based on Bayesian posterior probability. A simulation-based assessment demonstrated higher accuracy and precision of the Bayesian probabilistic model compared with a single-test outcome. The online tool developed in this study can assist physicians in making clinical evaluations by effectively integrating multiple COVID-19 tests.

Temporal landscape of human gut RNA and DNA virome in SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the enveloped RNA virus SARS-CoV-2 primarily affects the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts. SARS-CoV-2 was isolated from fecal samples, and active viral replication was reported in human intestinal cells. The human gut also harbors an enormous amount of resident viruses (collectively known as the virome) that play a role in regulating host immunity and disease pathophysiology. Understanding gut virome perturbation that underlies SARS-CoV-2 infection and severity is an unmet need. METHODS: We enrolled 98 COVID-19 patients with varying disease severity (3 asymptomatic, 53 mild, 34 moderate, 5 severe, 3 critical) and 78 non-COVID-19 controls matched for gender and co-morbidities. All subjects had fecal specimens sampled at inclusion. Blood specimens were collected for COVID-19 patients at admission to test for inflammatory markers and white cell counts. Among COVID-19 cases, 37 (38%) patients had serial fecal samples collected 2 to 3 times per week from time of hospitalization until after discharge. Using shotgun metagenomics sequencing, we sequenced and profiled the fecal RNA and DNA virome. We investigated alterations and longitudinal dynamics of the gut virome in association with disease severity and blood parameters. RESULTS: Patients with COVID-19 showed underrepresentation of Pepper mild mottle virus (RNA virus) and multiple bacteriophage lineages (DNA viruses) and enrichment of environment-derived eukaryotic DNA viruses in fecal samples, compared to non-COVID-19 subjects. Such gut virome alterations persisted up to 30 days after disease resolution. Fecal virome in SARS-CoV-2 infection harbored more stress-, inflammation-, and virulence-associated gene encoding capacities including those pertaining to bacteriophage integration, DNA repair, and metabolism and virulence associated with their bacterial host. Baseline fecal abundance of 10 virus species (1 RNA virus, pepper chlorotic spot virus, and 9 DNA virus species) inversely correlated with disease COVID-19 severity. These viruses inversely correlated with blood levels of pro-inflammatory proteins, white cells, and neutrophils. Among the 10 COVID-19 severity-associated DNA virus species, 4 showed inverse correlation with age; 5 showed persistent lower abundance both during disease course and after disease resolution relative to non-COVID-19 subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Both enteric RNA and DNA virome in COVID-19 patients were different from non-COVID-19 subjects, which persisted after disease resolution of COVID-19. Gut virome may calibrate host immunity and regulate severity to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our observation that gut viruses inversely correlated with both severity of COVID-19 and host age may partly explain that older subjects are prone to severe and worse COVID-19 outcomes. Altogether, our data highlight the importance of human gut virome in severity and potentially therapeutics of COVID-19. Video Abstract.

Modelling the association between COVID-19 transmissibility and D614G substitution in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein: using the surveillance data in California as an example.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat to global health, and pathogenic mutations are a major challenge to disease control. We developed a statistical framework to explore the association between molecular-level mutation activity of SARS-CoV-2 and population-level disease transmissibility of COVID-19. METHODS: We estimated the instantaneous transmissibility of COVID-19 by using the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). The mutation activity in SARS-CoV-2 is quantified empirically depending on (i) the prevalence of emerged amino acid substitutions and (ii) the frequency of these substitutions in the whole sequence. Using the likelihood-based approach, a statistical framework is developed to examine the association between mutation activity and Rt. We adopted the COVID-19 surveillance data in California as an example for demonstration. RESULTS: We found a significant positive association between population-level COVID-19 transmissibility and the D614G substitution on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We estimate that a per 0.01 increase in the prevalence of glycine (G) on codon 614 is positively associated with a 0.49% (95% CI: 0.39 to 0.59) increase in Rt, which explains 61% of the Rt variation after accounting for the control measures. We remark that the modeling framework can be extended to study other infectious pathogens. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show a link between the molecular-level mutation activity of SARS-CoV-2 and population-level transmission of COVID-19 to provide further evidence for a positive association between the D614G substitution and Rt. Future studies exploring the mechanism between SARS-CoV-2 mutations and COVID-19 infectivity are warranted.

A global analysis of replacement of genetic variants of SARS-CoV-2 in association with containment capacity and changes in disease severity.

OBJECTIVES: To examine severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant replacement in association with containment capacity and changes in case fatality at country level. METHODS: Altogether, 69 571 full SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected globally within the first 6 months of the pandemic were examined. The correlation between variant replacement and containment capacity was examined by logistic regression models using the WHO International Health Regulation (IHR) score, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) and the vulnerability index INFORM as proxies, while correlation with changes in monthly crude case fatality ratios was examined by a mixed effect model. RESULTS: At the global level, variant lineage G∗, characterized by the S-D614G mutation, replaced the older lineages L and S in March 2020. European countries-including Finland, France and Italy-were the first to reach a 50% increment of G∗, whereas only Singapore and South Korea had non-G∗ persisting throughout the first 6 months. Countries with higher IHR scores (ß-coefficient -0.001, 95%CI -0.016, -0.001; p 0.034) and higher stringency indexes (OxCGRT) (ß-coefficient -0.011, 95%CI -0.020, -0.001; p 0.035) were associated with lower levels of G∗ replacement, whereas higher vulnerability indexes (INFORM) (ß-coefficient 0.049, 95%CI 0.001, 0.097; p 0.044) were associated with higher replacement levels. Crude case fatality ratio showed a positive correlation with G∗ replacement (ß-coefficient: 0.034, 95%CI 0.011, 0.058; p 0.004), even after adjusting for testing capacity and other country-specific characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 variant lineage G∗ (S-D614G) replaced older lineages more efficiently in countries with lower containment capacity, and its possible association with increased disease severity deserves further investigation.